The predictive validity of a situational judgement test, a clinical problem solving test and the core medical training selection methods for performance in specialty training

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Variable n Mean SD Min Max Age (as of 01.01.09), years 2,561 29.74 4.24 24 60 Predictor variables CMT shortlisting score 2,569 29.46 11.98 0.00 75.00 CMT total interview score 1,974 45.65 8.00 18.00 60.00 CPS score 2,275 255.44 37.55 123.00 334.00 SJT score 2,263 251.61 37.41 113.00 329.00 Criterion variables MRCP(UK) part 1 score * 1,693 –4.36 12.31 –40.80 27.53 MRCP(UK) part 2 written score * 1,266 3.68 6.85 –18.00 27.55 MRCP(UK) PACES score * 1,179 4.39 20.70 –64.00 42.00 ↵*Exam score relative to the pass mark for that particular sitting.
CMT = core medical training; CPS = clinical problem solving test; MRCP(UK) = membership of Royal College of Physicians (UK); PACES = practical assessment of clinical examination skills; SJT = situational judgement test;
1 2 3 4 5 6 1 CMT shortlisting – 2 CMT interview 0.482 *** – n=1,974 3 CPS 0.413 *** 0.559 *** – n=2,275 n=1,911 4 SJT 0.357 *** 0.534 *** 0.524 *** – n=2,264 n=1,902 n=2,258 5 MRCP(UK) part 1 0.486 *** 0.484 *** 0.692 *** 0.374 *** – n=1,693 n=1,379 n=1,511 n=1,502 6 MRCP(UK) part 2 written 0.336 *** 0.386 *** 0.571 *** 0.369 *** 0.568 *** – n=1,266 n=1,079 n=1,142 n=1,135 n=1,227 7 MRCP(UK) PACES 0.345 *** 0.451 *** 0.379 *** 0.404 *** 0.319 *** 0.370 *** n=1,179 n=1,021 n=1,066 n=1,061 n=1,122 n=1,150 n is smaller than total n for each correlation because of matching data.
**Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level
↵***Correlation is significant at the 0.001 level (2 tailed).
CMT = core medical training; CPS = clinical problem solving test; MRCP(UK) = membership of Royal College of Physicians (UK); PACES = practical assessment of clinical examination skills; SJT = situational judgement test.
- Table 3.
Multiple hierarchical regression examining predictors of performance in the MRCP(UK) diploma
B SE B Lower bound 95% CI Upper bound 95% CI β MRCP(UK) part 1 (n=1,325) Step 1 R 2=0.300, ∆F change=283.01 ** Constant –38.917 1.766 –42.381 –35.453 - CMT shortlisting 0.332 0.028 0.28 0.39 0.313 *** CMT interview 0.515 0.043 0.43 0.60 0.320 *** Step 2 R 2=0.516, ∆R2=0.216, ∆F change=293.93 ** Constant –62.569 1.929 –66.354 –58.784 - CMT shortlisting 0.233 0.024 0.19 0.28 0.220 *** CMT interview 0.122 0.042 0.04 0.20 0.076 ** CPS 0.192 0.008 0.18 0.21 0.581 *** SJT –0.018 0.008 –0.03 –0.00 –0.056 * MRCP(UK) part 2 written (n=1,035) Step 1 R 2=0.167, ∆F change=103.54 ** Constant –14.382 1.378 –17.087 –11.678 - CMT shortlisting 0.090 0.019 0.05 0.13 0.152 *** CMT interview 0.313 0.032 0.25 0.38 0.315 *** Step 2 R 2=0.356, ∆R2=0.189, ∆F change=151.18 ** Constant –32.598 1.633 –35.803 –29.394 - CMT shortlisting 0.045 0.017 0.01 0.08 0.076 ** CMT interview 0.088 0.032 0.03 0.15 0.089 ** CPS 0.097 0.006 0.09 0.11 0.462 *** SJT 0.018 0.006 0.01 0.03 0.094 ** PACES (n=979) Step 1 R 2=0.216, ∆F change=134.74 ** Constant –62.040 4.291 –70.460 –53.619 - CMT shortlisting 0.231 0.058 0.12 0.34 0.127 *** CMT interview 1.213 0.098 1.02 1.41 0.393 *** Step 2 R 2=0.279, ∆R2=0.063, ∆F change=42.38 ** Constant –93.871 5.555 –104.772 –82.970 - CMT shortlisting 0.181 0.056 0.07 0.29 0.100 ** CMT interview 0.760 0.107 0.55 0.97 0.247 *** CPS 0.079 0.021 0.04 0.12 0.121 *** SJT 0.132 0.019 0.10 0.17 0.224 *** ↵*Significant at the p<0.05 level
↵**Significant at the p<0.01 level
↵***Significant at the p<0.001 level;
SE = standard error; CI = confidence interval; ∆R2 = R-squared change; CMT = core medical training; CPS = clinical problem solving test; MRCP(UK) = membership of Royal College of Physicians (UK); PACES = practical assessment of clinical examination skills; SJT = situational judgement test.
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