In response

The phrases ‘pulled back’ and ‘too good to be true’ were deliberately put in quotes and taken from the reference. They are therefore Stuart Pocock's and David Spiegelhalter's own words. David Spiegelhalter, the doyen of Bayesian statistics, has often used this himself, as an example of the ‘appropriate’ use of Bayesian statistics. Hence my use in the Oration!

• © 2009 Royal College of Physicians