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The UK physician workforce: one-third at increased risk of death from COVID-19

Ajay M Verma, Andrew F Goddard, Donal O'Donoghue, Nina Newbery, Christopher Phillips and Nigel Trudgill
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.7861/clinmed.2020-0756
Clin Med February 2021
Ajay M Verma
AKettering General Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Kettering, UK and chair of the New Consultants Committee, Royal College of Physicians, London, UK
Roles: consultant gastroenterologist and physician
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  • For correspondence: ajay.verma@nhs.net
Andrew F Goddard
BRoyal College of Physicians, London, UK
Roles: president
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Donal O'Donoghue
CRoyal College of Physicians, London, UK
*see note appending text
Roles: registrar
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Nina Newbery
DRoyal College of Physicians, London, UK
Roles: head of the Medical Workforce Unit
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Christopher Phillips
EMedical Workforce Unit, Royal College of Physicians, London, UK
Roles: census design and production coordinator
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Nigel Trudgill
FSandwell and West Birmingham Hospitals NHS Trust, Birmingham, UK
Roles: consultant gastroenterologist and physician
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ABSTRACT

Introduction 21% of NHS staff are from black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) backgrounds yet account for a disproportionately high number of medical-staff deaths from COVID-19. Using data from the published OpenSAFELY Collaborative, we analysed consultant physicians to determine those at increased risk of COVID-19 related death.

Methods Data from 13,500 consultant physicians collected by the Royal College of Physicians were analysed to determine those at an increased risk of death from COVID-19, assuming no comorbidities.

Results The data reveal a picture in which a third of consultant physicians have a hazard ratio (HR) >1 for dying from COVID-19; one in five have HR >2; one in 11, HR >3; and one in 40, HR >4. Of concern are the risks to male physicians aged ≥60 with HR >3.8. Sub-specialties including cardiology, endocrine and diabetes, gastroenterology, haematology, neurology and rheumatology have a greater risk profile due to high proportion of men, physicians of older age, and proportion of BAME individuals.

Conclusion A third of consultant physicians have an increased risk of a COVID-19-related death, and one in five have a higher relative risk (HR >2). The risk is mainly driven by age, gender, and ethnicity, the risk is highest in male consultant physicians over 60, especially from BAME backgrounds.

KEYWORDS
  • COVID-19
  • physicians
  • BAME
  • consultants
  • death
  • © Royal College of Physicians 2021. All rights reserved.
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The UK physician workforce: one-third at increased risk of death from COVID-19
Ajay M Verma, Andrew F Goddard, Donal O'Donoghue, Nina Newbery, Christopher Phillips, Nigel Trudgill
Clinical Medicine Feb 2021, clinmed.2020-0756; DOI: 10.7861/clinmed.2020-0756

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The UK physician workforce: one-third at increased risk of death from COVID-19
Ajay M Verma, Andrew F Goddard, Donal O'Donoghue, Nina Newbery, Christopher Phillips, Nigel Trudgill
Clinical Medicine Feb 2021, clinmed.2020-0756; DOI: 10.7861/clinmed.2020-0756
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