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Building on a novel bootstrapping modelling technique to predict region-wide critical care capacity requirements over the next decade

Tom Lawton, Aaron Corp, Claire Horsfield, Michael McCooe, Paul Stonelake and Simon Whiteley
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.7861/fhj.2022-0025
Future Healthc J March 2023
Tom Lawton
ABradford Institute for Health Research, Bradford, UK
Roles: head of clinical analytics
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  • For correspondence: Tom.lawton@bthft.nhs.uk
Aaron Corp
BBradford Institute for Health Research, Bradford, UK
Roles: improvement fellow
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Claire Horsfield
CWest Yorkshire Critical Care and Major Trauma Operational Delivery Network, Leeds, UK
Roles: manager and lead nurse
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Michael McCooe
DImprovement Academy, Bradford Institute for Health Research, Bradford, UK
Roles: clinical director
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Paul Stonelake
EWest Yorkshire Critical Care and Major Trauma Operational Delivery Network, Leeds, UK
Roles: deputy clinical lead
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Simon Whiteley
FWest Yorkshire Critical Care and Major Trauma Operational Delivery Network, Leeds, UK
Roles: clinical lead
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    Fig 1.

    Simplified overview of model and data. CCMDS = Critical Care Minimum Dataset; ONS = Office for National Statistics.

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    Fig 2.

    Resource requirements with 2029 population showing 90%, 95% and 98% quantiles. L3 = level 3.

Tables

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    Table 1.

    Resource position in 2019

    UnitNo. of physical bedsNo. of beds with ventilatorsNo. of bedside nurses
    A745
    B161612
    C24a24a11
    D11115
    E151512
    F888
    G16812
    H202015
    I392324
    Total156129104
    • ↵aUnit C had a number of mothballed beds.

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    Table 2.

    Modelled change in raw numbers for each unit from 2019 to 2029

    UnitEmergency increase (%)Elective increase (%)
    A12%20%
    B9%13%
    C8%13%
    D10%16%
    E5%5%
    F5%6%
    G4%4%
    H13%14%
    I5%5%
    • View popup
    Table 3.

    Total region resources (2029) for each tested scenario

    Scenario (%)No. of physical bedsNo. of beds with ventilatorsNo. of bedside nurses
    90184132127
    95198134141
    98216141154
    • View popup
    Table 4.

    Recommendations for each unit using the 95% and 98% scenarios

    UnitNo. of extra bedsNo. of extra Level-3 bedsNo. of extra bedside nurses
    A6–71–23–4
    B7–905–6
    C003–5
    D2–404–5
    E8–110–16–8
    F8–102–45–6
    G7–93–54–6
    H0–201–2
    I4–806–8
    Total42–606–1237–50
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Building on a novel bootstrapping modelling technique to predict region-wide critical care capacity requirements over the next decade
Tom Lawton, Aaron Corp, Claire Horsfield, Michael McCooe, Paul Stonelake, Simon Whiteley
Future Healthc J Mar 2023, 10 (1) 50-55; DOI: 10.7861/fhj.2022-0025

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Building on a novel bootstrapping modelling technique to predict region-wide critical care capacity requirements over the next decade
Tom Lawton, Aaron Corp, Claire Horsfield, Michael McCooe, Paul Stonelake, Simon Whiteley
Future Healthc J Mar 2023, 10 (1) 50-55; DOI: 10.7861/fhj.2022-0025
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