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Building on a novel bootstrapping modelling technique to predict region-wide critical care capacity requirements over the next decade

Tom Lawton, Aaron Corp, Claire Horsfield, Michael McCooe, Paul Stonelake and Simon Whiteley
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.7861/fhj.2022-0025
Future Healthc J March 2023
Tom Lawton
ABradford Institute for Health Research, Bradford, UK
Roles: head of clinical analytics
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  • For correspondence: Tom.lawton@bthft.nhs.uk
Aaron Corp
BBradford Institute for Health Research, Bradford, UK
Roles: improvement fellow
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Claire Horsfield
CWest Yorkshire Critical Care and Major Trauma Operational Delivery Network, Leeds, UK
Roles: manager and lead nurse
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Michael McCooe
DImprovement Academy, Bradford Institute for Health Research, Bradford, UK
Roles: clinical director
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Paul Stonelake
EWest Yorkshire Critical Care and Major Trauma Operational Delivery Network, Leeds, UK
Roles: deputy clinical lead
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Simon Whiteley
FWest Yorkshire Critical Care and Major Trauma Operational Delivery Network, Leeds, UK
Roles: clinical lead
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Abstract

We have previously described an open-source data-driven modelling technique that has been used to model critical care resource provision as well as expanded to elective surgery and even whole-hospital modelling. Here, we describe the use of this technique to model patient flow and resource use across the West Yorkshire Critical Care Network, with the advantage that recommendations can be made at an individual unit level for future resource provision, taking into account changes in population numbers and demography over the coming decade. We will be using this approach in other regions around the UK to help predict future critical care capacity requirements.

KEYWORDS
  • modelling
  • simulation
  • critical care
  • health planning
  • © Royal College of Physicians 2023. All rights reserved.
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Building on a novel bootstrapping modelling technique to predict region-wide critical care capacity requirements over the next decade
Tom Lawton, Aaron Corp, Claire Horsfield, Michael McCooe, Paul Stonelake, Simon Whiteley
Future Healthc J Mar 2023, fhj.2022-0025; DOI: 10.7861/fhj.2022-0025

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Building on a novel bootstrapping modelling technique to predict region-wide critical care capacity requirements over the next decade
Tom Lawton, Aaron Corp, Claire Horsfield, Michael McCooe, Paul Stonelake, Simon Whiteley
Future Healthc J Mar 2023, fhj.2022-0025; DOI: 10.7861/fhj.2022-0025
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