PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Tom Lawton
AU  - Michael McCooe
TI  - Policy: A novel modelling technique to predict resource ­requirements in critical care – a case study
AID  - 10.7861/futurehosp.6-1-17
DP  - 2019 Feb 01
TA  - Future Healthcare Journal
PG  - 17--20
VI  - 6
IP  - 1
4099  - http://www.rcpjournals.org/content/6/1/17.short
4100  - http://www.rcpjournals.org/content/6/1/17.full
SO  - Future Healthc J2019 Feb 01; 6
AB  - Modelling is an under-used tool in the NHS operationally; this is primarily due to a lack of familiarity, but also due to the complex nature of the healthcare system, lack of sufficiently detailed data, and difficulties trying to distil the heterogeneity of individual patient experience into manageable groups. This paper describes a model of patient flow and resource use on the critical care unit at Bradford Royal Infirmary, ­produced using a novel technique which helps avoid these issues by using genuine routinely collected historical data in lieu of trying to model individual patients. This has had ­unexpected benefits in terms of engagement with the model as it is much easier to justify its validity when it is based directly on real people. Going forward, we will use this approach to model an entire hospital.