Table 3.

Multiple hierarchical regression examining predictors of performance in the MRCP(UK) diploma

	B	SE B	Lower bound 95% CI	Upper bound 95% CI	β
MRCP(UK) part 1 (n=1,325)
Step 1 R ²=0.300, ∆F change=283.01 ^**
Constant	–38.917	1.766	–42.381	–35.453	-
CMT shortlisting	0.332	0.028	0.28	0.39	0.313 ^***
CMT interview	0.515	0.043	0.43	0.60	0.320 ^***
Step 2 R ²=0.516, ∆R²=0.216, ∆F change=293.93 ^**
Constant	–62.569	1.929	–66.354	–58.784	-
CMT shortlisting	0.233	0.024	0.19	0.28	0.220 ^***
CMT interview	0.122	0.042	0.04	0.20	0.076 ^**
CPS	0.192	0.008	0.18	0.21	0.581 ^***
SJT	–0.018	0.008	–0.03	–0.00	–0.056 ^*
MRCP(UK) part 2 written (n=1,035)
Step 1 R ²=0.167, ∆F change=103.54 ^**
Constant	–14.382	1.378	–17.087	–11.678	-
CMT shortlisting	0.090	0.019	0.05	0.13	0.152 ^***
CMT interview	0.313	0.032	0.25	0.38	0.315 ^***
Step 2 R ²=0.356, ∆R²=0.189, ∆F change=151.18 ^**
Constant	–32.598	1.633	–35.803	–29.394	-
CMT shortlisting	0.045	0.017	0.01	0.08	0.076 ^**
CMT interview	0.088	0.032	0.03	0.15	0.089 ^**
CPS	0.097	0.006	0.09	0.11	0.462 ^***
SJT	0.018	0.006	0.01	0.03	0.094 ^**
PACES (n=979)
Step 1 R ²=0.216, ∆F change=134.74 ^**
Constant	–62.040	4.291	–70.460	–53.619	-
CMT shortlisting	0.231	0.058	0.12	0.34	0.127 ^***
CMT interview	1.213	0.098	1.02	1.41	0.393 ^***
Step 2 R ²=0.279, ∆R²=0.063, ∆F change=42.38 ^**
Constant	–93.871	5.555	–104.772	–82.970	-
CMT shortlisting	0.181	0.056	0.07	0.29	0.100 ^**
CMT interview	0.760	0.107	0.55	0.97	0.247 ^***
CPS	0.079	0.021	0.04	0.12	0.121 ^***
SJT	0.132	0.019	0.10	0.17	0.224 ^***

↵*Significant at the p<0.05 level
↵**Significant at the p<0.01 level
↵***Significant at the p<0.001 level;
SE = standard error; CI = confidence interval; ∆R² = R-squared change; CMT = core medical training; CPS = clinical problem solving test; MRCP(UK) = membership of Royal College of Physicians (UK); PACES = practical assessment of clinical examination skills; SJT = situational judgement test.