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Ethnic population projections for the UK, 2001–2051

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Abstract

This paper reports on projections of the United Kingdom’s ethnic group populations for 2001–2051. For the years 2001–2007 we estimate fertility rates, survival probabilities, internal migration probabilities and international migration flows for 16 ethnic groups and 355 UK areas. We make assumptions about future component rates, probabilities and flows and feed these into our projection model. This model is a cohort-component model specified for single years of age to 100+. To handle this large state space, we employed a bi-regional model. We implement four projections: (1) a benchmark projection that uses the component inputs for 2001; (2) a trend projection where assumptions beyond 2007 are adjusted to those in the UK 2008-based National Population Projections (NPP); (3) a projection that modifies the NPP assumptions and (4) a projection that uses a different emigration assumption. The projected UK population ranges between a low of 63 millions in 2051 under the first projection to a high of 79 million in the third projection. Under all projections ethnic composition continues to change: the White British, White Irish and Black Caribbean groups experience the slowest growth and lose population share; the Other White and Mixed groups to experience relative increases in share; South Asian groups grow strongly as do the Chinese and Other Ethnic groups. The ethnic minority share of the population increases from 13% (2001) to 25% in the trend projection but to only 20% under our modified emigration projection. However, what is certain is that the UK can look forward to be becoming a more diverse nation by mid-century.

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Acknowledgments

Funding support for the research project What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas (ESRC RES-162-25-0032) was provided by the Economic and Social Research Council 2007–2010 under the Understanding Population Trends and Processes (UPTAP) programme. Further support was provided by the School of Geography, University of Leeds in 2010. Data used included census data downloaded from the ESRC Census Programme’s CASWEB unit (area statistics), SARs unit (sample microdata), CIDER unit (migration statistics), UKBORDERS unit (digital boundaries) and the ESRC’s ESDS Government service (Labour Force Survey). Census, survey, official Mid-Year Estimates and Vital Statistics data for England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland were provided by ONS, GROS and NISRA and the digital boundary data by OSGB and OSNI. These data are Crown copyright and are reproduced with permission of OPSI. The following people gave us valued advice during the research: John Stillwell (University of Leeds), Adam Dennett (University of Leeds), Tom Wilson (University of Queensland), Frans Willekens (Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute), James Raymer (University of Southampton), Ludi Simpson (University of Manchester), David Coleman (University of Oxford), Sylvie Dubuc (University of Oxford), John Hollis (Greater London Authority), Roma Chappell, Emma Wright, Jonathan Swan and Chris Shaw (all at the Office for National Statistics), Luned Jones and Elinor Griffiths (Welsh Assembly Government), David Marshall (Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency) and Cecilia Macintyre (UK Statistics Authority, Scotland). The results described in this paper are experimental. The authors accept no responsibility for any consequences of use.

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  1. School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK

    Philip Rees & Paul Norman

  2. Institute for Ageing and Health, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE4 5PL, UK

    Pia Wohland

  3. Edge Analytics Ltd, Leeds Innovations Centre, 103 Clarendon Road, Leeds, LS2 9DF, UK

    Peter Boden

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Rees, P., Wohland, P., Norman, P. et al. Ethnic population projections for the UK, 2001–2051. J Pop Research 29, 45–89 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12546-011-9076-z

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