Original article
Pancreas, biliary tract, and liver
Increased Survival for Patients With Cirrhosis and Organ Failure in Liver Intensive Care and Validation of the Chronic Liver Failure–Sequential Organ Failure Scoring System

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cgh.2014.08.041Get rights and content

Background & Aims

During the past decade, survival has increased among patients admitted to general intensive care units, but it is not clear if it has increased for patients admitted with cirrhosis and organ failure. The chronic liver failure–sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA) recently was developed as an adaptation to the SOFA to predict outcomes of patients, but requires validation. We investigated changes in outcomes of patients with cirrhosis and organ failure since 2000, compared the abilities of SOFA and CLIF-SOFA to predict patient survival, and validated the CLIF-SOFA system.

Methods

In a retrospective study, we collected data from 971 patients (median age, 52 y; age range, 16–90 y; 62% male) with cirrhosis (54% alcohol associated, 12% viral, and 34% other causes). The patients were admitted under emergency conditions from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2010, to a liver intensive therapy unit in the United Kingdom. Patient survival while in the hospital was compared with measures of illness severity, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II scores, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores, SOFA scores, and CLIF-SOFA scores.

Results

Patients had a median APACHE II score of 21 (range, 5–50) and a median MELD score of 23 (range, 6–40). The median APACHE II score at admission decreased from 23 to 22 over the study period (P < .001), whereas the median MELD score at admission decreased from 23 to 18 (P < .001). Overall survival until hospital discharge was 51%; this value increased from 40% in 2000 to 63% in 2010 (P < .001). The unadjusted odds ratio for change in mortality/year was 0.87 (95% confidence interval, 0.83–0.91; P < .001). The APACHE II score adjusted odds ratio for mortality was 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.84–0.93; P < .001). The etiology of cirrhosis was not associated with a significant difference in survival. CLIF-SOFA and SOFA scores at the time of admission predicted patient survival with area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) values of 0.813 and 0.799, respectively; the scores at 48 hours after admission predicted survival with AUROC values of 0.853 and 0.840, and scores after 1 week predicted survival with AUROC values of 0.842 and 0.844, respectively. These AUROC values were higher than those obtained from APACHE II or MELD scores.

Conclusions

The proportion of patients with cirrhosis who survived after admission to intensive care increased from 2000 to 2010. SOFA and CLIF-SOFA scores during the first week of critical care appear to have similar abilities to predict patient survival.

Section snippets

Methods

Between January 2000 and December 2010 consecutive admissions to the liver intensive therapy unit (LITU) at King’s College Hospital had prospective predefined capture of baseline demographic and clinical data by dedicated auditors. The worst result/score in the 24-hour period was used for that day's result. These data were collected daily for the total critical care admission period. Detailed LITU discharge documents were produced by senior medical staff and also were used as a data source.

Cohort Characteristics

A total of 1032 patients originally were identified. After exclusions, 971 patients with an underlying diagnosis of cirrhosis were admitted during the period beginning from 2000 to the end of 2011, and formed the basis of the study cohort (Table 1).

The median age was 51 years (range, 16–90 y), with a male:female sex profile of 615:356 (63%:37%). There was no survival difference between men and women and no difference in median admission APACHE II score (P = .548). The median admission MELD

Discussion

We have shown that in more than a decade of experience in treating patients with cirrhosis requiring organ support, clinically meaningful and statistically significant improvements in outcome have occurred. In this cohort even patients with 2 or 3 organs in failure at admission still had 30% to 55% survival rates, although the mortality rate in patients with more than 3 organs in failure at admission approached 80%.

We found that alcohol was not an etiology that was associated with worse

Acknowledgments

All authors are grateful to the National Institute for Health Research biomedical research council at King's College London for infrastructure support during the course of this study. Mark McPhail also thanks the National Institute for Health Research biomedical research center at Imperial College London for infrastructure support during this study.

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Conflicts of interest The authors disclose no conflicts.

Funding Supported by the Wellcome Trust (grant number ME047380MES), United Kingdom, a postdoctoral training fellowship during this study (M.J.W.M.), a doctoral studentship from the National Institute for Health Research (R.D.A.), and by a Higher Education Funding Council for England National Institute for Health Research senior lectureship (D.L.S.).

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