The future burden of cancer in England: incidence and numbers of new patients in 2020

Br J Cancer. 2007 May 7;96(9):1484-8. doi: 10.1038/sj.bjc.6603746. Epub 2007 May 1.

Abstract

We estimated the future cancer incidence rates and the future numbers of cancer cases in England up to 2020 using cancer registration data for 1974-2003, and the official population projections from ONS up to 2023. Data were analysed using an age-period-cohort model as developed for the Nordic countries. We predict that for all cancers combined there will be relatively little change in age-standardised incidence rates in 2020. The number of new cancer cases per year in England is, however, predicted to increase by 33%, from 224,000 in 2001 to 299,000 cases in 2020. This increase is mainly due to the anticipated effects of population growth and ageing; cancer patients in 2020 will be older than today's cancer population.

MeSH terms

  • Cost of Illness
  • England / epidemiology
  • Female
  • Forecasting
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Male
  • Neoplasms / classification
  • Neoplasms / economics*
  • Neoplasms / epidemiology*
  • Registries